Olive harvest estimates for 2023/2024
We are in the month of July, 3 months away from starting a new olive harvest 2023/2024.
At this stage it is possible to start estimating what olive oil production will be at national and international level, as well as to have an idea of how the market will behave in terms of consumption and prices.
It is estimated that the olive oil production of the world's main producers will be around 2,000,000 tonnes, with Spain accounting for 36% of this production and 50% of its normal production.
Portugal will account for around 6% of world olive oil production, which represents an increase of 10% compared to the previous campaign 2022/2023.
Knowing that current bulk olive oil stocks are relatively low, it is expected that the new harvest will start with stocks of 300,000 tonnes in stock.
Based on the production estimate data and current olive oil stocks it is expected that the price of olive oil will continue to rise.
The increase in the average price of olive oil is something that has been happening since the beginning of 2022, with a steeper rise and reaching historical values that have been surpassed every month since November 2022.
The current average price of extra virgin olive oil is €7800 per tonne and is expected to exceed €8000 per tonne during the campaign.
The big question is how long will the price of olive oil continue to rise?
Early rainfall in September and October in Spain could lead to speculation about what next year's production will be in 2024/2025 and slightly lower the average price of olive oil.
The truth is that as long as there is more demand than supply, prices will not fall, and recent data shows that olive oil exports to the United States of America and the European Union continue to rise.
Our strategy will be to start harvesting early, guaranteeing excellent quality extra virgin olive oils at the beginning of October in order to take full advantage of the high prices that the market is offering us.
The olive groves give us good production prospects, the olive stone is already fully formed and lipogenesis, the conversion of sugars into oil, is rapidly beginning.
At the mill we are fine-tuning the last details to start a new olive harvest in the best way.
The maintenance and sanitisation of the mill is essential for its correct functioning and to obtain the best extra virgin olive oils.
High temperatures at the beginning of the harvest are detrimental to the quality of the oils, and at the Olinova mill we have technology and equipment that allows us to lower the temperature of the olives and the masses, carrying out cold extractions, optimising their quality and guaranteeing the production of excellent fruity extra virgin olive oils.